Transition Guy

12 for '12

My Top 12 Predictions for 2012

 

1) Obama will win in November no matter who the Reps run.

2) Hillary Clinton will swap jobs with Joe Biden. (Stole this one from Robert Reich.)

3) The Euro will survive but many European banks will not.

4) At least one major US bank (BOFA?) will fail.

5) Unemployment will be greater than 10% before July 1.

6) A recession will be declared before July 1.

7) Oil will average over $100/barrel for the entire year.

8) California will suffer its driest winter in history the year after one of its wettest.

9) Republicans in California will hold less than one third of the legislative seats after the November elections.

10) California will raise state taxes or declare bankruptcy.

11) The US or Israel will attack Iran.

12) I will continue to keep my 401k in my mattress.

Top Ten

Now that I'm living vicariously with those close enough to Wall St. to Occupy it I want to provide them with a list of coherent demands.  In the spirit of Letterman, without the wit, I propose the following list of reforms.

Top Ten Demands of the 99%

1) Amend the Constitution to clearly and unequivocally state that only HUMAN BEINGS are People.

2) Raise the top marginal tax rate to 50% of all income, wages and unearned income, over $3 million per year.

3) Institute a Financial Transaction Tax to discourage speculation and high-frequency trading schemes.

4) Limit financial institutions to 1% of national wealth.

5) Enforce Sherman Anti-Trust laws; limit the size of any corporation in a critical market (e.g., food, water, power, housing, healthcare) to 1% of the national market size.

6) Consolidate Medicare and all Federal employees healthcare, including: Congress, Retirees, Veterans, etc., into a single Medicare system; allow any US citizen to buy into that system at cost.

7) Institute a Freedom Tax on all fossil fuels based on their carbon/btu content; target a $0.25 tax per gallon of gas immediately, with scheduled doubling for the next 3 years.

8) Allow the cap on SSI taxes to float against ALL income not just wages; the tax rate should be adjusted every five years to meet projected program expenses + 5%, no more.

9) End the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Pakistan, Pipelinistan, etc. immediately.

10) Eliminate US Government deposit insurance for private banking institutions. Replace it with deposit insurance for chartered State banks (e.g., Bank of ND) only.

These do not make the cut -
- Eliminate the EPA: Who needs clean air and water anyway?

- Eliminate the Dept. of Transportation: Who cares if we have national roads, railroads and waterways?

- Eliminate the Dept. of the Interior: Who cares if we have national parks or land use management?

- Eliminate the Dept. of Education: Who cares if our nation is filled with ignorance? 

- Eliminate the FAA: Who cares if our pilots are trained or our planes are safe?

- Eliminate the FDA & USDA: Who cares if our food and drugs are safe?

- Eliminate the SEC, FBI and Secret Service: The free-market will police itself.

- Eliminate local zoning and building codes: The free-market will police itself.

- Eliminate all laws and regulations: The free-market will police itself.

p.s. I may have won my football pool for the second straight week. Time to play the ponies!

Financial forecasting

To follow-up on last week's post regarding making money in any market, rising or falling, as long as your predictions are correct I'd like to present my football pool.  It's a simple pool, each week selecting the winner of each contest against the spread and assigning a point value based on the number of games.  In a typical week early in the year there are sixteen picks, guesses as it were, with sixteen points assigned to your most certain (or hopeful contest) through one point on your least confident or most disinterested contest.  Selection of your picks can vary from random, push a button and the computer does it all, to pouring over the sports pages and blogs reviewing injury reports, boastful predictions and shoe contracts.  I fall someplace in the middle considering won-loss records, most recent contest results, the home-field advantage and the spread.  Throw in a few biases for and against selected teams and voila! Tenth place!

That some pool players are more successful at the process, at least early in the season, seems to indicate that there are sources of information and rational process that yields better results.  Replace football teams with 32 investment choices from stock and bonds to commodities and land, financial predictions are not that much different than my football pool.  From randomly predicting the future direction of prices of any investment vehicle to in-depth analysis of the financial news channels, blogs and tea leaves if your predictions are correct, regardless of whether your favorite team is going to win or lose, you can make a lot of money...or lose your shirt.

Whether it is my success or lack thereof in football pool selections or a firm belief in the Chaos Theory, where an infinite number of specific initial conditions make predictions of future complex events (e.g., the weather, investments or peak oil) exceedingly difficult, I prefer to play it safe with all of my significant assets.  I have worked too hard earning them and have too little confidence in my ability to accurately forecast the future, regardless of how much information I expose myself to, to risk them in arenas where the owners hold all cards, rules and dealers.  I think this is preparing for the future the old-fashioned way by saving for it rather than participating in the speculation and gambling that is the financial world we live within.

17-Sept-2011 Economic Spectator

Coffee in the bloodstream, cat on the mouse hand demanding attention, I am ready to move from economic spectator to participant.

What is the average Transition Guy to make of all the economic information available?  From 7x24 Cable News, to Internet sites too numerous to count, to email and tweats from dilettantes there is no lack of economic information. Whether by choice or coincidence my sources clearly describe significant economic contraction in the future.  In fact, the only "positive" source of information is the Dow which continues to barrel along with at least short-term confidence.  The Dow is highly suspect IMHO, with a significant percentage of daily activity driven by computerized trading between Fall Street firms having nothing to do with long-term investment strategies and everything to do with short-term profits.

The conventional wisdom expects you to profit from your economic predictions, it being possible to make money in any market, rising or falling, if your predictions are correct.  However, I continue to be primarily concerned with protection of capital, primarily 401k's and some home equity, and positioning myself and family to be as near to sustainable means of food production, as soon as possible. I hope that the current cycle of Extend and Pretend successfully keeps the economy stumbling along long-enough to complete my own plans of de-leveraging and relocation.

 

Reflection, abstraction and our future

A post on one on my favorite writer's blogs inspired me to write the following comment. With due respect for the opinions of my fellow travelers I post it here for inspection.

Thanks again for the thoughtful and erudite summation of our current predicament. I wish that my abstract life allowed time for a full reflection upon it's implications. I will share a few thoughts before my weekly allotment of home gardening practical learning.

 

It seems to me a fool's errand to attempt to save or reform the current educational system. Its size and dependence upon large inputs of energy ensure its future demise.  I think that education will survive only in forums similar to this one sans the Internet.  When life inevitably returns to a predominately local affair only two types of education will survive: the practical and the reflective.  The practical 'cause there ain't no way to escape the need to eat, keep warm and find a mate. It is the reflective experience that is the most curious to me.

 

You have framed the question of man's nature most succinctly.  After we are finished meeting our daily needs via practical knowledge we are left with lots of time on our hands.  While lions are content to lounge in the sun and groom themselves humans seem to be intent on contemplation and reflection. We have even labeled ourselves as such: homo sapiens, going so far as to add additional ~sapiens indicative of our superior knowledge.  I think that from reflection springs abstraction in an attempt to know (reflect) with certainty.

 

As we enter the Long Descent I look to you and other sources for reflections upon our spiritual future. Are we as a species destined to perpetually exploit the practical benefits of reflection or is there another course where reflection results in reverence and respect for the precarious and wondrous nature of our existence?  There is the very real possibility that our exploitative capabilities have already destroyed the opportunity for our contemplative selves to enjoy life basking in the sun, licking our neighbors. I like to think that somehow we come out of this predicament with a profound understanding of our limitations and a deeper appreciation for mystery and the opportunity to love.

21-May-2011

Too busy to watch the public economy in any detail so I am trusting those in charge to do the right thing. As long as my short-term personal economy stays solvent I'll enjoy the cheerleading in the press and $4+ gas as if the future is nothing but rosy as long as we believe it is.

26-Mar-2011

The Middle East in flames, Japan in meltdown, gasoline over $4 per gallon in California - Headline in today's papers: California adds 100,000 new jobs!  As long as one of those is for my soon to be graduating son, all is okay.

There's nothing new to change my conviction that difficult times are in the near future. In fact, for many people, they are already here.  The Transition Guide advice to downsize and localize continues to be the best option for protecting yourself, family and friends. 

Good luck to us all.

TG

Transition

This collection of links and thoughts reflects my current priorities of localizing food production and developing Transition strategies.  Staying aware of the dominant culture is important so there are economic and information links, as well. 

Good luck to us all.

TG